Another piece from 1999, this time discussing how electronic devices are increasingly defined by the software they run, not by their hardware capabilities. I wrote this before the iPod was released, and am pleased by how events have proved my thesis – today’s mobile phones and iPods (esp. iPod touch) are very much the kind of device I envisioned. Sonique, my software of choice back then, has disappeared: however, many of its features have appeared in other programs.
Now, pull the lever on the Wayback machine and be transported to London, in the summer of 1999…
I’m writing this in the garden, listening to music on my laptop. How the music got there and how it’s played back is the story of MP3, which has been well described elsewhere. What has struck me is how the player software is actually easier to use and more capable than any portable device I’ve used, and in fact better than my CD player at home, thanks to software development. You may want to consider some music systems for the home. The reasons for this are part of a longer-term trend for more and more hardware functionality to become translated into software, and in fact become a service. This poses enormous challenges, not just for the music industry, but also for manufacturers of any product whose functionality can be expressed in sofware.
Much has been written about the rise of MP3 and how it challenges the established dynamics of the music industry. By enabling high quality audio to be stored as compressed data files, it opens up the possibility of downloading and copying music without any loss of quality. However, it also separates the musical content from the physical media on which it is distributed, and this has powerful implications. A great deal of today’s music industry, from production to retail, is actually concerned with moving around the physical media: boxes of CDs and audiotapes. Pricing is set by album, not by duration or by song. MP3 forces the music industry to deal head on with the issue of distribution and pricing of content, not boxes containing silver discs. While many are favoring the use of streaming services to consume their music, there is an ongoing renaissance wherein vinyl records are once again lauded by audiophiles using certain audio equipment – like that of HIFISYSTEMCOMPONENTS.COM – to improve the quality of their records. I won’t deal with these issues today, I’ll focus on the impact on electronics manufacturers.
Most MP3 music today is played back via software running on general purpose computers. Programmes such as Winamp, Sonique and Real Jukebox not only play back music, but add sophisticated functionality such as music library management, associating graphics or notes with music, generating accompanying graphics and linking to music download sites. In other words, the programmes turn the PC into a sophisticated entertainment centre and distribution channel for music. Many of these programmes provide more control and ease of use over music playback than a conventional home stereo: built-in equalisers, playlist managers, upgradable visual and audio effects.
There is an emerging trend towards specialised devices for MP3 music playback, patterned after the existing Walkman or Discman type devices, and with similar functionality. The consumer value proposition seems to be that it performs like those devices, except they don’t skip. By not exploiting the possibilities inherent in a software driven playback device, manufacturers are missing an important trick. The value of MP3 lies precisely in the fact that it is independent of hardware, and allows considerably more flexibility in its management and playback. At only slightly more cost than the Diamond Multimedia Rio MP3 player, it is possible to buy a Windows CE based organiser with sound output built in, that takes the same storage media as the Rio, and with software based MP3 playback. The user interface is not a matter of physical buttons, it can change dynamically. Improving performance and adapting to new formats does not require dismantling or physical modification, it is as easy as downloading a new version of the software. Multiple playback utilities can coexist for different situations.
In, fact many other applications are suitable for general purpose devices with only slight modification. Music is only one example of an application for which this is true. Many of the components in a mobile phone, electronic organiser, digital camera, portable computer or even GPS locator are common: processor, batteries, display, storage media. The specific hardware functionality of each of these devices is easy to isolate and provide as a separate component. Replacing a walkman, organiser, mobile phone and even camera with a single integrated device provides enormous advantages in terms of ease of use and convenience, especially for a frequent traveller! Epson in Japan has already launched a device that integrates all these functions: the Locatio is a personal organiser with a colour screen, a digital camera, a GPS receiver and mobile phone connection.
MIT’s Laboratory for Computer Science is exploring highly adaptable software defined devices as part of their project Oxygen. They have taken this to the point of implementing a “software radio”, basically an aerial attached to a fast digital signal processor. Software running on a standard microprocessor can make this hardware behave as anything from a cellular phone to a walkie talkie or even a television receiver. John V. Guttag, director of the project, has this to say:
“Everything we do follows three basic tenets: First, whenever possible, we build general-purpose devices rather than special-purpose devices. Second, we design communications systems that can be dynamically optimized for the existing case, rather than for some hypothetical worst or even average case. Finally, whenever possible we design our systems in software, not hardware. And, fortunately for us, it is almost always possible to do it in software.”
Once a function is expressed as software, and a communications link is available, it becomes feasible to provide it as a service. Sonique, the MP3 player I use, has a feature that allows it look for upgrades and new features on the Internet. In effect, Sonique is a music playback service, not just a software product. When integrated with supply of content, the implications for electronics manufacturers are enormous. Why spend money on expensive hardware that does only one thing (forever!) when you can buy a cheap computer or appliance (using these tech bargains) that can do everything better, with constant upgrades? Not only is this possible at home, but the evolution of computer technology means that this functionality is increasingly available in every form factor: big box with screen and speakers at home, medium sized box for office, pocket sized box for travel. The increasing ability to connect everything to the Internet will drive this trend even faster.
Manufacturers like Sony, Nokia, Palm need to start taking this into account or they are history. There is an emerging conventional wisdom view that computing power will become embedded into special purpose devices, and that therefore computers per se will vanish. I suggest instead that we will see a vast number of special purpose devices replaced with ever more capable general purpose devices, and functionality that currently depends on hardware components will be provided in software, and this software in turn will become a service.
Many of today’s manufacturers are fixated on providing functionality via increasingly specialised bits of hardware, where the pace of change is relatively slow compared to evolution of computing and software. This is a race that the software designers are bound to win: MP3 players can change much, much faster than CD players, and become available on smaller and smaller devices that can do other things.
Manufacturers that embrace this trend and aim to supply general purpose devices that can easily be extended or upgraded will survive and prosper: those that focus on application specific boxes will fail. A case of the latter is the fate of dedicated word processor industry of the early to mid 80’s and how it was driven out of business by the rise of the PC. The business opportunity is in the provision of software services to make the most of the emerging generation of devices.
Being successful as a provider of services means that manufacturers must develop organisational skills and capabilities previously unnecessary, such as managing a detailed customer database, managing configuration and services to devices in the field, etc. Nokia is attempting to do this with Club Nokia, as are other manufacturers building on their warranty registration databases. However, furious competition is emerging in this area with mobile service providers attempting (and succeeding) to own the customer relationship, and with retailers selling their own extended warranties in part to bypass the manufacturers own strategy for building customer links.
The other great opportunity is to manage the communications among many of these devices, allowing services to be associated with a person and not a device, and therefore push the market in the direction of having many of these devices per consumer. This depends on the emergence of network based storage and synchronisation services, which I will cover in a future essay.
When hardware becomes software (Another blast from the past)
Another piece from 1999, this time discussing how electronic devices are increasingly defined by the software they run, not by their hardware capabilities. I wrote this before the iPod was released, and am pleased by how events have proved my thesis – today’s mobile phones and iPods (esp. iPod touch) are very much the kind of device I envisioned. Sonique, my software of choice back then, has disappeared: however, many of its features have appeared in other programs.
Now, pull the lever on the Wayback machine and be transported to London, in the summer of 1999…
I’m writing this in the garden, listening to music on my laptop. How the music got there and how it’s played back is the story of MP3, which has been well described elsewhere. What has struck me is how the player software is actually easier to use and more capable than any portable device I’ve used, and in fact better than my CD player at home, thanks to software development. You may want to consider some music systems for the home. The reasons for this are part of a longer-term trend for more and more hardware functionality to become translated into software, and in fact become a service. This poses enormous challenges, not just for the music industry, but also for manufacturers of any product whose functionality can be expressed in sofware.
Much has been written about the rise of MP3 and how it challenges the established dynamics of the music industry. By enabling high quality audio to be stored as compressed data files, it opens up the possibility of downloading and copying music without any loss of quality. However, it also separates the musical content from the physical media on which it is distributed, and this has powerful implications. A great deal of today’s music industry, from production to retail, is actually concerned with moving around the physical media: boxes of CDs and audiotapes. Pricing is set by album, not by duration or by song. MP3 forces the music industry to deal head on with the issue of distribution and pricing of content, not boxes containing silver discs. While many are favoring the use of streaming services to consume their music, there is an ongoing renaissance wherein vinyl records are once again lauded by audiophiles using certain audio equipment – like that of HIFISYSTEMCOMPONENTS.COM – to improve the quality of their records. I won’t deal with these issues today, I’ll focus on the impact on electronics manufacturers.
Most MP3 music today is played back via software running on general purpose computers. Programmes such as Winamp, Sonique and Real Jukebox not only play back music, but add sophisticated functionality such as music library management, associating graphics or notes with music, generating accompanying graphics and linking to music download sites. In other words, the programmes turn the PC into a sophisticated entertainment centre and distribution channel for music. Many of these programmes provide more control and ease of use over music playback than a conventional home stereo: built-in equalisers, playlist managers, upgradable visual and audio effects.
There is an emerging trend towards specialised devices for MP3 music playback, patterned after the existing Walkman or Discman type devices, and with similar functionality. The consumer value proposition seems to be that it performs like those devices, except they don’t skip. By not exploiting the possibilities inherent in a software driven playback device, manufacturers are missing an important trick. The value of MP3 lies precisely in the fact that it is independent of hardware, and allows considerably more flexibility in its management and playback. At only slightly more cost than the Diamond Multimedia Rio MP3 player, it is possible to buy a Windows CE based organiser with sound output built in, that takes the same storage media as the Rio, and with software based MP3 playback. The user interface is not a matter of physical buttons, it can change dynamically. Improving performance and adapting to new formats does not require dismantling or physical modification, it is as easy as downloading a new version of the software. Multiple playback utilities can coexist for different situations.
In, fact many other applications are suitable for general purpose devices with only slight modification. Music is only one example of an application for which this is true. Many of the components in a mobile phone, electronic organiser, digital camera, portable computer or even GPS locator are common: processor, batteries, display, storage media. The specific hardware functionality of each of these devices is easy to isolate and provide as a separate component. Replacing a walkman, organiser, mobile phone and even camera with a single integrated device provides enormous advantages in terms of ease of use and convenience, especially for a frequent traveller! Epson in Japan has already launched a device that integrates all these functions: the Locatio is a personal organiser with a colour screen, a digital camera, a GPS receiver and mobile phone connection.
MIT’s Laboratory for Computer Science is exploring highly adaptable software defined devices as part of their project Oxygen. They have taken this to the point of implementing a “software radio”, basically an aerial attached to a fast digital signal processor. Software running on a standard microprocessor can make this hardware behave as anything from a cellular phone to a walkie talkie or even a television receiver. John V. Guttag, director of the project, has this to say:
“Everything we do follows three basic tenets: First, whenever possible, we build general-purpose devices rather than special-purpose devices. Second, we design communications systems that can be dynamically optimized for the existing case, rather than for some hypothetical worst or even average case. Finally, whenever possible we design our systems in software, not hardware. And, fortunately for us, it is almost always possible to do it in software.”
Once a function is expressed as software, and a communications link is available, it becomes feasible to provide it as a service. Sonique, the MP3 player I use, has a feature that allows it look for upgrades and new features on the Internet. In effect, Sonique is a music playback service, not just a software product. When integrated with supply of content, the implications for electronics manufacturers are enormous. Why spend money on expensive hardware that does only one thing (forever!) when you can buy a cheap computer or appliance (using these tech bargains) that can do everything better, with constant upgrades? Not only is this possible at home, but the evolution of computer technology means that this functionality is increasingly available in every form factor: big box with screen and speakers at home, medium sized box for office, pocket sized box for travel. The increasing ability to connect everything to the Internet will drive this trend even faster.
Manufacturers like Sony, Nokia, Palm need to start taking this into account or they are history. There is an emerging conventional wisdom view that computing power will become embedded into special purpose devices, and that therefore computers per se will vanish. I suggest instead that we will see a vast number of special purpose devices replaced with ever more capable general purpose devices, and functionality that currently depends on hardware components will be provided in software, and this software in turn will become a service.
Many of today’s manufacturers are fixated on providing functionality via increasingly specialised bits of hardware, where the pace of change is relatively slow compared to evolution of computing and software. This is a race that the software designers are bound to win: MP3 players can change much, much faster than CD players, and become available on smaller and smaller devices that can do other things.
Manufacturers that embrace this trend and aim to supply general purpose devices that can easily be extended or upgraded will survive and prosper: those that focus on application specific boxes will fail. A case of the latter is the fate of dedicated word processor industry of the early to mid 80’s and how it was driven out of business by the rise of the PC. The business opportunity is in the provision of software services to make the most of the emerging generation of devices.
Being successful as a provider of services means that manufacturers must develop organisational skills and capabilities previously unnecessary, such as managing a detailed customer database, managing configuration and services to devices in the field, etc. Nokia is attempting to do this with Club Nokia, as are other manufacturers building on their warranty registration databases. However, furious competition is emerging in this area with mobile service providers attempting (and succeeding) to own the customer relationship, and with retailers selling their own extended warranties in part to bypass the manufacturers own strategy for building customer links.
The other great opportunity is to manage the communications among many of these devices, allowing services to be associated with a person and not a device, and therefore push the market in the direction of having many of these devices per consumer. This depends on the emergence of network based storage and synchronisation services, which I will cover in a future essay.